The best predictor of where we are in all this madness is looking at the shape of the curve. We're in a steep exponential growth curve. We'll know if our measures are doing anything in the next week or so, but I'm thinking that curve is going to keep accelerating because our testing rates have been so low. Worse, rural areas are taking little to no action and will likely create a second wave of infections in the fall.
This is far from over. All that freedom, like packed prisons and detention centers and everyone else feeling like they can do whatever they want, see these mega churches still meeting, is going to bite us in the ass.