I'm not so sure about this -- I'll wait to see how Spain and Monaco shake out.
Most of the drivers complained about the grip levels at Portimao -- compared it to ice skating. Max was certainly the loudest voice there. And in spite of that, Max had track position ahead of Hamilton. Max made a mistake coming out of a corner and Hamilton was able to capitalize on that due to his experience. I don't think Portimao proved that Merc have the better car -- it proved that they have the more consistent driver. Hamilton didn't even pull away from Max at all. Max finished ~29s behind Hamilton because RBR pulled him in for a fastest lap attempt, not due to the Merc's prowess.
We'll see how things shake out on tracks where everyone is comfortable and feels like they can do their best.
The problem with that track was the wind primarily... you couldn't get comfortable and set consistent fast times....
Hamilton had the fastest lap of all during qualy, 1:17.968 ... he set in in Q2, no one got below 1:18 after that..... Valteri's Q2 was 1:18.458 and his pole time was only 1:18.348, slightly better...
The time Max had that got deleted was 1:18.209... almost 3/10th slower... this is very short track too....
And that was an uneasy Hamilton in qualifying, he took it conservative, he could have done much better... He was on his way to <1:17.899 but to sell the championship fight a bit, he knows its better to just blame the car a little, say how close Red Bull is and take care of his car..... He is an old wise fox now, he knows he could have easily put a time half a second better than Valtteri's if he was really comfortable.... The Merc is a still not quite dialed down, there is no denying.
When I saw that I knew it didn't look good for RB, even with their much more mature car... what I didn't realize was how bad the trap speed deficit was on the straights.... Max was a sitting duck, he never attempted anything bc it was futile.... specially when passing on turn 1 was so easy.... block on the inside, smooth sailing for overtaking car... stay on the outside, overtaking car just dives to the inside and pushes you out...
The Mercedes will always have the faster car on the straights, it will be the same in every race more or less... the only pro of the Red Bull with more downforce, its kinder to its tires... so they can play with that a lot more and Red Bull is very experimental with their strategy... if they pull it off it will be magical, trust me I am rooting for them.